Submitted by admin on Wed, 08/05/2020 - 13:20
COVID-19 Predictions, SDSC@CityU

Coronavirus pandemic modeling and prediction

  • Mainland China began to have sizable data from 20 Jan 2020 and is nearing the end of one whole process. However, many other countries are still undergoing a rapid change in the pandemic, with too few days of data to allow for reliable modeling.
  • Our approach is using data from mainland China to build models to predict what will happen in the next 14 days in each region. We build causal models from daily confirmed cases to predict daily deaths and cured cases.
  • The models for the cure and death processes are inspired by chemical reaction processes, each of which has only three parameters and captures the essential dynamics.
  • The cure and death models seem to have very different dynamics, with the cure process much slower than the death process. The models from mainland China indicate that it takes about 12 days for cure or 2 days for death to show sizable numbers after being confirmed. It takes about 60 days to complete the cure process or 30 days to complete the death process.
  • Although data from mainland China shows different characteristics between Wuhan and other part of China, the overall model predicts well for the regions we tested, except for the death process for Italy. We build another death model for Italy for the predictions in Italy and Lombardy.
    Curing Process

     

    Contributors

    • Prof. S. Joe Qin, Dr. Qingpeng Zhang, Mr. Robert Jing (PhD student), Mr. Zhe Yuan (Student of Master of Science in Data Science) from City University of Hong Kong
    • Ms. Fiona Guo (PhD student), Mr. Jerry Li (PhD student), Mr. Wei Ling (PhD student) from University of Southern California
    • Enquiries: Ms. Emily Yip (emilyyip@cityu.edu.hk)

    Research results are generated based on the available data. We do not guarantee the accuracy, and the responsibility of making any decisions with reference of these results rests with the user. No liability whatsoever will be taken by the authors or the website owner.

    Mainland China excluding Hubei

    • The daily data we used are raw data without manual corrections, even though there is a large bump on 12 Feb 2020 when Hubei Province changed leadership and the way to report data.
    • The five prediction curves are the predicted results of today and the previous four days.
    • The future cumulative confirmed cases are predicted using a simple neural network.

    For interactive graphs, please see China outside of Hubei.

     

    China Cured
    China Deceased

    Last updated on 3 May, 2020

    Wuhan

    • The daily data we used are raw data without manual corrections, even though there is a large bump on 12 Feb 2020 when Hubei Province changed leadership and the way to report data.
    • The five prediction curves are the predicted results of the most recent day with data and previous four days.
    • The future cumulative confirmed cases are predicted using a simple neural network.

    For interactive graphs, please click here.

     

    wuhan1wuhan2

    Last updated on 3 May, 2020

    Canada

    • The China model for cure and death processes is used for the predictions and works well.
    • The five prediction curves are the predicted results of the most recent day with data and previous four days.
    • The future cumulative confirmed cases are predicted using a simple neural network.

    For interactive graphs, please click here.

    Canada_curedCanada_curedLast updated on 3 May, 2020

    Germany

    • The China model for cure and death processes is used for the predictions and works well.
    • The five prediction curves are the predicted results of the most recent day with data and previous four days.
    • The future cumulative confirmed cases are predicted using a simple neural network.

    For interactive graphs, please click here.

     

    Germany_cured_3Germany_cured_3Last updated on 3 May, 2020

     

    Italy

    • The daily data for cure is too few, but the China cure model is used and works well.
    • The death data from Italy is sufficient to build the model. The Italy death model is much faster than that of China and has a much larger gain.
    • The five prediction curves are the predicted results of the most recent day with data and previous four days.
    • The future cumulative confirmed cases are predicted using a simple neural network.

    For interactive graphs, please click here.

     

    Italy_cured_3.png Italy_deceased_3.png

    Last updated on 3 May, 2020

    Lombardy

    • The daily data for cure is too few, but the China cure model is used and works well.
    • The death model from Italy is used to predict the daily death rate in Lombardy.
    • The five prediction curves are the predicted results of the most recent day with data and previous four days.
    • The future cumulative confirmed cases are predicted using a simple neural network.

    For interactive graphs, please click here.

     

    Lombardy_cured_3.pngLombardy_deceased_3.png

    Last updated on 3 May, 2020

    Spain

    • The China model for cure and death processes is used for the predictions and works well.
    • The five prediction curves are the predicted results of the most recent day with data and previous four days.
    • The future cumulative confirmed cases are predicted using a simple neural network.

    For interactive graphs, please click here.

    Spain_cured_3.png Spain_deceased_3.png

    Last updated on 3 May, 2020

    United States

    • The China model for cure and death processes is used for the U.S. predictions and works well.
    • The five prediction curves are the predicted results of the most recent day with data and previous four days.
    • The future cumulative confirmed cases are predicted using a simple neural network.

    For interactive graphs, please click here.

    US_cured_3.pngUS_deceased_3.pngLast updated on 3 May, 2020

    Confirmed case predictions

    Hong Kong

    Hong KongDaily_23-Apr-2020.pngHong KongCum_23-Apr-2020.png

     

    China outside of Hubei

    ChinaDaily_23-Apr-2020.pngChinaDaily_23-Apr-2020.png

     

    Hubei

    HubeiHubei

     

    Wuhan

    WuhanWuhan

     

    Canada

    CanadaDaily_23-Apr-2020.pngCanadaDaily_23-Apr-2020.png

     

    Germany

    GermanyGermany

     

    Korea

    KoreaKorea

     

    Italy

    ItalyItaly

     

    Lombardy

    LombardyLombardy

     

    Spain

    SpainSpain

     

    United States

    United StatesUnited States

    Last updated on 26 April, 2020